24 januari 2012

Deal with uncertain forecasts with Mark Spearman.

Hi Mark, can you tell us about your topic for the conference?
- Of course! I will focus on inventory optimization and will present a new way to balance efforts in production/supply chain.
  On the second day of the conference I have “in-depth-talks” in the morning. Then I will get into details of inventory management. I will also describe a new methodology called “Dynamic risk-based scheduling” as a way to schedule random environment.

Which is the most valuable experience you will be sharing with us?
- I will, of course, share a lot of valuable experience – perhaps how to deal with bad forecasts is one of the most important ones.  I will also share my experience on how to schedule without scheduling.

What is the key knowledge you bring us after your speech?
- That would be how to balance the three buffers of operations management in order to maximize the profit of the business.
I have given these talks in a broad range of environments – from an academic seminar to particular company training sessions – and they always stimulate discussion and improve understanding.

And here are some questions from Mark to you!  Can you answer them?  
1. How do you manage inventories in times of uncertainty?

2. How do you measure forecast accuracy?  If it involves a percentage it is probably not optimal.  If not mean squared error, you should reconsider.

3. How are you computing safety stock?  If you are not considering reorder quantity, it is probably wrong.  If you are using a Normal table, it is probably wrong.

4. Are you using safety lead time and safety stock?  If so, you are probably carrying too much inventory.

5. How do you measure customer service?  Percent on time or days late or both?

6. If you carry no safety stock, what is your customer service?

If you you have a lot of negative answers, you need to come to this talk.

Nordic Supply Chain Meeting 2012

Nordic Supply Chain Meeting på Chalmers i Göteborg är mötesplatsen och inspirationskällan för logistik, supply chain, planering, inköp och verksamhetsförbättring.

Här möter du kollegor, knyter nya kontakter, diskuterar aktuella frågor, finner nya verktyg, kunskap och inspiration.